Event Details

Title: The role and challenges of forecasting for circular economic operations

Environmental sustainability is a global priority as finite resources are being depleted at an unprecedented rate. The traditional linear economic model of make–use–dispose is leading to irreparable ecological damage and is no longer a viable option, and the shift towards a Circular Economy (CE) and a make–use–reuse model is already underway. The transition to a CE is a complex undertaking that has major implications for operations management. Circular strategies and operations such as repair, remanufacturing, repurposing, and others, must now deal with extra uncertainties stemming from the core (used product) acquisition and transformation process. These operations rely upon accurate forecasts of demand, returns and net demand (demand minus returns) requirements. Net demand (forecasting) departs from traditional demand (forecasting) on two fronts: a) its returns (forecast) constituent depends on past (and at times within-lead time) demand, and b) both net demand and its forecasts can take positive, negative, or zero values. These issues have made net demand characterisation and forecasting challenges, and the measurement of its accuracy problematic. In this upcoming webinar, I will discuss concepts, methods, and challenges at the intersection of three areas: circular economy and strategies therein, forecasting, and forecast accuracy measurement.