The New Wave in Risk Evaluation

A stormy sea battering a lighthouse

Lancaster statistical research revolutionises flood planning

Extreme flood events are the second largest natural hazard facing the UK after pandemics, yet flood mitigation has historically been reactive. More sophisticated predictive approaches were urgently needed to improve preparation and planning.

Application-driven research by the Extreme Value Statistics group has produced a step change in environmental risk assessment and prevention. In partnership with JBA, world-leading specialists in flood risk management, we have played a crucial role in building resilience to inland and coastal flood events, with an impact that spans both public and private sectors, across the UK and on an international scale.

  • Enabled decisive UK Government action through the first assessment of the probability of a flood occurring somewhere in the country in a given year.
  • Improved spatial understanding of flooding for planning scenarios – estimated to have saved £40million UK-wide since 2016.
  • Maximising efficiency of all new UK coastal flood defences. Estimated to have saved £75million on coastal defences and over £1billion at nuclear sites.
  • Extreme event simulations used for reinsurance worldwide and publicly available software used by over 100 companies for flood risk assessment.

Evidence and analysis which informs policy.

A quote from HM Government: National Flood Resilience Review, 2016