Despite pressure from the United Nations Framework for action on climate change, measurements of global CO2 emissions in 2018 are showing a new rise. While this is a sobering wake-up call, it isn't necessarily a reason for gloom, argues Gail Whiteman (The Pentland Centre). There's an underlying, more powerful movement for change, including the work of business leaders, that can deliver a low-carbon world.

Thee bad news is that global CO2 emissions have started to rise again. Between 2014 and 2016 it looked as if a corner had been turned, levels of emissions were flattening. But then in 2017 they increased by 1.6%, and now projections are for+ 2%. The main cause appears to be more use of fossil fuels internationally, particularly among developing countries in support of economic growth.

Rather than backtracking on ambitions for reducing emissions, now is the time for bolder targets and more assertive plans for action. It's a sense of purpose shared by more than 100 authors and co-signatories (CEOs, former heads of state, civil society leaders, academics) who put their support behind an article initiated by Lancaster's Pentland Centre. The article has been led by Christiana Figueres, the former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC and a main architect of the Paris Agreement. Published by Nature at the end of last year, this sets out a bold vision for change.

We need to ensure that the curve of new solutions outpaces that of climate emissions; meaning that emissions are pushed back to zero by 2050. Every fraction of a degree of warming in the atmosphere is critical to human security. Just 1°C of warming above pre-industrial levels has led to weather­related disasters that are estimated to have amounted to damages of$2.2 trillion over the past two decades; without taking into account the human misery involved. The full costs of events in 2018, Typhoon Mangkhut, hurricanes Florence and Michael, the heatwaves and wildfires that ravaged parts of Europe and the United States are yet to be calculated.

WHAT'S WORKING ALREADY

The actual infrastructure needed for a low-carbon world still looks a distant possibility. The reality is that more change has already taken place in the past decade-especially in terms of attitudes and vision -than would ever have been thought possible, and the pace of change is fast accelerating.

For example, in 2009 the UN climate summit failed to deliver a meaningful global framework, and any such international consensus looked impossible at that time. But fast forward to 2015 and the UN's Paris Agreement was a tremendous breakthrough . Targets are now in place and impacting directly on policy­making throughout the world.

There are also strong signs that unusual collaborations across sectors are helping the low carbon transition, and this means the role of science has changed. In the past it was often the case of scientists working in isolation to present evidence on climate change; now they are standing up jointly- as in the case of the Nature article -to share the latest science and discuss action. There is also a major shift in terms of commitment from players in business and industry, in a re-alignment of organisational goals away from short-term profit to longer-term concerns and the impact of climate change, the sustainability of resources. The Arctic Basecamp1 initiative continues to bring together scientists with business and political leaders for high-level discussions concurrent with the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos.

More nations a re moving towards green energy systems. Generating solar energy has become far cheaper than natural gas (Morocco, Mexico, Chile and Egypt are producing solar power for 3 US cents or less per kilowatt hour). Numbers of wind and solar installations are doubling every four years, and renew ables are expected to deliver half the world's electricity by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. Advanced battery storage technologies will be essential for a future of renewable energy, as well as for popularising the use of electric vehicles. And this is happening, with costs of battery storage expected to be halved by 2030. In 2016, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said there would be 46 million electric vehicles by 2040. Now it admits it's more likely to be around 253 million. The most carbon­intensive industries are responding. Last year the Energy Transitions Commission claimed that chemicals, steel and cement can reach a net zero emissions position by 2050 at a cost of less than 0.5% of global GDP.

Political support for climate action, particularly at a more local and regional level, is stepping up. Globally, more than 9,000 cities and municipalities from 128countries (representing 16% of the world's population), have confirmed their commitment to the goals of the Paris Agreement via the Global Covenant of Mayors; and so have 245 state and regional bodies from 42 countries ( 17.5 % of the global population). 6,225 business organisations in 120countries have pledged to contribute to the Paris goals, representing $36.5 trillion in revenue; more than the combined GDP of the United States and China.

Critically, the cost of carbon emissions is beginning to be factored into accounting. In 2017, 1,400 multinational companies were including a price on carbon pollution into their business plans. Around 500 companies have recognised the value of setting 'science-based targets' for their emissions reductions.

ROADMAP TO THE LOW-CARBON WORLD

The biggest threat to the upwards curve in change is distraction; short­term political preoccupations, anything that means a delay, a slowing up in the pace of movement towards a new model. There's also the need for having priorities that can focus and galvanise activity towards the greatest impact and momentum.

Christiana Figueres and her team have developed a useful roadmap through their Mission2020 campaign. In their work with academics, climate action campaigners and stakeholders internationally they have produced milestones to work towards in six key areas, goals for where the world needs to be in the next three years. Some targets may appear unrealistic or wildly optimistic; but what matters at this stage is a positive vision, to have the kind of clear and specific ambitions that we know are the essential building blocks. And, stubborn optimism can become reality, as the signing of the historic Paris Agreement has shown. The idea of what's 'impossible' isn't a fact, rather an attitude that can change.

Energy. Renew ables make up at least 30% of the world's electricity supply; up from 23. 7% in 2015. No coal-fired power plants to be approved beyond 2020, and all existing ones are being retired.

Infrastructure. Cities and states have initiated action plans to fully decarbonise buildings and infrastructures by 2050. Cities are upgrading at least 3% of their building stock to zero- or near-zero emissions structures each year.

Transport. Electric vehicles make up at least 15% of new car sales globally, up from around 1 % market share currently. Commitments have been made to a doubling of mass-transit use of electric vehicles in cities, a 20% increase in fuel efficiencies for heavy­duty vehicles and a 20% decrease in greenhouse-gas emissions from aviation per kilometre travelled.

Land. Land-use policies are enacted that reduce forest destruction and shift to reforestation and afforestation efforts. Current net emissions from deforestation and land-use changes form about 12% of the global total. If these can be cut to zero in the next decade, and afforestation and reforestation can instead be used to create a carbon sink by 2030, it will help to push total net global emissions to zero, while supporting water supplies and other benefits.

Industry. Heavy industry is developing and publishing plans for increasing efficiencies and cutting emissions, with a goal of halving emissions well before 2050. Carbon-intensive industries­such as iron and steel, cement, chemicals, and oil and gas-currently emit more than one-fifth of the world's CO2, excluding their electricity and heat demands.

Finance. The financial sector has rethought how it deploys capital and is mobilising at least $1 trillion a year for climate action. Most will come from the private sector. Governments, private banks and lenders such as the World Bank need to issue many more' green bonds' to finance climate-mitigation efforts. This would create an annual market that, by 202 0, processes more than 10 times the $81 billion of bonds issued in 2016.

Gail Whiteman is Rubin Chair and Director of the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business at Lancaster University, and Professor-in-Residence at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

lancaster.ac.uk/pentland

The Nature article can be found at bit.ly/ nature -emissions

1Iancaster.ac.uk/pentland/arctic-basecamp