Event Details

The Seminar will be hosted by the Economics Department

Valerie Mueller will present: “Temporary Migration and Climate Variation in Eastern Africa”

Abstract: Understandinghow climate variability affects migration is crucial to adaptation policydesign. Combining high-resolution climate data with panel microdata onmigration, labor participation, and demographics, we assess temporary migrationresponses to local temperature and precipitation anomalies in four East Africancountries. Climate impacts are most pronounced in urban areas, with a onestandard deviation temperature increase and rainfall decrease leading torespective 10 and 24 percent declines in migration relation to mean observedvalues. Evidence from other labor market outcomes suggests that the reducedurban migration is due to a decline in outside options for urban migrationsrather than an increase in alternative urban employment. Conversely, reducedurban opportunities during periods of extreme climate may limit the potentialfor rural migration to serve as an adaptation tool.