Wednesday 11 March 2020, 3:30pm to 4:45pm
VenueFUR - Furness LT 2 - View Map
RegistrationRegistration not required - just turn up
This Seminar is hosted by the Economics Department
Paola Conconi will present a Seminar on
Title “Trade Protection along Supply Chains”
Abstract During the last few decades, the United States has applied increasingly high tariﬀs on imports from China in the form of antidumping duties and other temporary trade barriers (TTBs). We combine detailed information on US TTBs since the 1980s with US input-output data to study the eﬀects of trade protection along supply chains. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we instrument tariﬀs exploiting variation in the political importance of diﬀerent industries – resulting from changes in the identity of swing states across electoral terms – and in their experience at petitioning for TTBs. We ﬁnd that tariﬀs in upstream industries have large negative eﬀects on downstream industries, raising input prices and decreasing employment, sales, and investment. Our baseline estimates for the 1988-2016 period indicate that a one standard deviation increase in US input tariﬀs against China decreases employment growth by 0.3 percentage points per year. These estimate simply that around 570,000 jobs were lost due to input protection during the last seven presidential terms. We show that around 204,000 additional jobs were lost due to TTBs against China since President Trump took oﬃce.
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