Professor Robert Fildes

Distinguished Professor

Current Research

I am currently working in the area of climate forecasting. Recent work has shown the large simulation models used in developing the IPCC's view of global warming are seriously flawed.

The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem
Huang, T., Fildes, R., Soopramanien, D. 1/09/2014 In: European Journal of Operational Research. 237, 2, p. 738-748. 11 p.
Journal article

Reassessing the scope of OR practice: the influences of problem structuring methods and the analytics movement
Ranyard, J., Fildes, R., Hu, J. 1/08/2014 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 38 p.
Working paper

On the identification of sales forecasting models in the presence of promotions
Trapero, J.R., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R. 2014 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society.
Journal article

An evaluation of simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series
Fildes, R., Petropoulos, F. 2014 In: Journal of Business Research.
Journal article

Measuring forecasting accuracy: the case of judgmental adjustments to SKU-level demand forecasts
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R. 07/2013 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 3, p. 510-522. 13 p.
Journal article

An evaluation of simple forecasting model selection rules
Fildes, R., Petropoulos, F. 04/2013 Lancaster : The Department of Management Science, 32 p.
Working paper

Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions
Trapero Arenas, J., Pedregal, D.J., Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 04/2013 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 234-243. 10 p.
Journal article

The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem: Working paper 2013:1
Huang, T., Fildes, R., Soopramanien, D. 03/2013 Lancaster, UK : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 32 p.
Working paper

Principles of Business Forecasting
Ord, J.K., Fildes, R. 2013 Mason, Ohio : South-Western Cengage Learning. 528 p. ISBN: 9780324311273.
Book

Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance
Trapero Arenas, J., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R. 12/2012 In: OMEGA the International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 738-747. 10 p.
Journal article

A joint Bayesian forecasting model of judgment and observed data: Working paper 2012: 4
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R. 10/2012 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University
Working paper

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change
Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 10/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, p. 968-995. 28 p.
Journal article

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change: Postscript
Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 10/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, 2 p.
Editorial

Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures
Fildes, R., Wei, Y., Ismael, S. 07/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 3, p. 902-922. 21 p.
Journal article

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Lawrence, M., Stephens, G. 2011 In: OMEGA the International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253. 12 p.
Journal article

Non-linear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU-level
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Fildes, R.A., Davydenko, A. 2011 In: Journal of Forecasting. 30, 5, p. 490–508. 19 p.
Journal article

Using hierarchical task decompositions as a grammar to map actions in context: Application to forecasting systems in supply chain planning
Asimakopoulos, S., Dix, A., Fildes, R.A. 2011 In: International Journal of Human-Computer Studies. 69, 4, p. 234-250. 17 p.
Journal article

Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecasting in supply chain planning models
Fildes, R.A., Kingsman, B.G. 2011 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 62, p. 483-500. 18 p.
Journal article

Forecasting: 5 volume set
Fildes, R., Allen, P.G. 2011 London : Sage. 2104 p. ISBN: 9781848607828.
Book

Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R.A. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Measuring the Accuracy of Judgmental Adjustments to SKU-level Demand Forecasts
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R.A., Trapero Arenas, J.R. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Validation in models of climate change and forecasting accuracy
Fildes, R.A., Kourentzes, N. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Judgmental Adjustments to Demand Forecasts: Accuracy Evaluation and Bias Correction
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R.A., Trapero Arenas, J.R. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Forecasting software visualizations: an explorative study
Asimakopoulos, S., Fildes, R.A., Dix, A. 2009 In: 23rd British HCI Conference (Cambridge) - 2009. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts
Syntetos, A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 2009 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81. 10 p.
Journal article

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2009 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23. 21 p.
Journal article

Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Fildes, R.A., Davydenko, A. 2009 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Forecasting and Operational Research: A Review
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S., Syntetos, A. 09/2008 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 59, 9, p. 1150-1172. 23 p.
Journal article

Aggregate selection, data characteristics and choice of optimal model
Fildes, R.A., Madden, G. 2008 In: Teletronikk. 104, 3/4, p. 155-167. 13 p.
Journal article

Forecasting and OR
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S., Syntetos, A. 2008 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 59, p. 1150-1172. 23 p.
Journal article

Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 2007 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 8, p. 5-10. 6 p.
Journal article

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks
Fildes, R.A., Lee, W.Y., Goodwin, P., Nikolopoulos, K. 2007 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 23, p. 377-390. 14 p.
Journal article

Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics
Fildes, R.A., Tan, J., Madden, G. 2007 In: Applied Financial Economics. 17, p. 1251-1264. 14 p.
Journal article

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 In: Telecommunications Policy. 31, 5, p. 265-275. 11 p.
Journal article

Household technology acceptance heterogeneity in computer adoption
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 2007 N/A : unknown, 7 p.
Working paper

Segmentation based analysis of internet service adoption of UK households
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 In: Technology in Society. 29, p. 339-350. 12 p.
Journal article

Consumer decision making, e-commerce and perceived risks
Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A., Robertson, A. 2007 In: Applied Economics. 39, p. 2159-2166. 8 p.
Journal article

The process of using a forecasting support system
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2007 N/A : unknown, 14 p.
Working paper

Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. 2006 In: Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361. 11 p.
Journal article

Understanding the use of forecasting software: an interpretive study in a supply-chain company
Goodwin, P., Lee, W.Y., Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The impact of forecasting on the bullwhip effect
Stamatopoulos, I., Teunter, R.H., Fildes, R.A. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Levels, difference and ECMs: principles for improved econometric forecasting
Allen, P.G., Fildes, R.A. 2005 In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 67, p. 881-904. 24 p.
Journal article

Measuring residential internet service adoption patterns
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems
Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification
Kingsman, B.G., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting
Liao, K.P., Fildes, R.A. 2005 In: Computers and Operations Research. 32, 8, p. 2151-2169. 19 p.
Journal article

Understanding residential internet adoption patterns in the UK
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2004 In: Telektronikk. 100, 4, p. 84-93. 10 p.
Journal article

Sales forecasting support systems (FSS) for the supply chain
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K. 2004 In: Operational Research 46th Annual Conference (York ) - 2004. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

Analysis of company sales data
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K. 2004 In: International Symposium on Forecasting ISF (Sydney ) - 2004. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

Forecasting and prediction
Amstrong, J.S., Fildes, R.A. 2004 In: The Social Science Encyclopedia. London and New York : Routledge ISBN: 0-415-32096-8.
Chapter

Preparation for crisis management: a proposed model and empirical evidence
Rose, M.B., Fildes, R.A., Elsubbaugh, S. 2004 In: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. 12, 3, p. 112-127. 16 p.
Journal article

Levels, differences and ECMs - principles for improved econometric forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Allen, P.G. 2004 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Liao, K.P. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Internet Usage and Online Shopping Experience as Predictors of Consumers’per Preferences to Shop Online Across Product Categories
Soopramanien, D.G.R., Robertson, A., Fildes, R.A. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The state of macroeconomic forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Stekler, H. 2002 In: Journal of Macroeconomics. 24, 4, p. 435-468. 34 p.
Journal article

Telecommunications demand - a review
Fildes, R.A. 2002 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 18, p. 489-522. 34 p.
Journal article

Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2002 In: OMEGA the International Journal of Management Science. 30, p. 381-392. 12 p.
Journal article

Forecasting competitions - their role in improving forecasting practice and research
Fildes, R.A., Ord, J.K. 2002 In: A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Oxford : Blackwell p. 322-353. 32 p. ISBN: 0-6312-1569-7.
Chapter

Beyond forecasting competitions
Fildes, R.A. 2001 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 17, 4, p. 556-560. 5 p.
Journal article

Econometric forecasting: strategies and techniques
Fildes, R.A., Allen, P.G. 2001 In: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Berlin : Springer p. 303-362. 60 p. ISBN: 0-7923-7930-6.
Chapter

The management of OR groups: results of a survey
Crymble, W.R., Ranyard, J.C., Fildes, R.A. 1999 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 50, p. 563-580. 18 p.
Journal article

Judgemental forecasts of times series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 1999 In: Journal of Behavioural Decision Making. 12, p. 37-53. 17 p.
Journal article

The state of macroeconomic forecasting
Stekler, H., Fildes, R.A. 1999 Lancaster University : The Department of Economics
Working paper

Summary of final discussion
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 434-443. 10 p.
Journal article

Winners and losers: adding organisational value
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 355-368. 14 p.
Journal article

The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion
Fildes, R.A., Bottomley, P. 1998 In: Journal of Forecasting. 17, 7, p. 539-555. 17 p.
Journal article

Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence
Hibon, M., Meade, N., Makridakis, S., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 14, 3, p. 339-358. 20 p.
Journal article

The foundations, development and current practice of OR
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 304-443. 140 p.
Journal article

Forecasting internet telephony
Raina, J., Day, K., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: OR Insight. 11, 4
Journal article

Commentaries on 'Generalizing about the univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence'
Koehler, A.B., Armstrong, J.C., Hibon, M., Makridakis, S., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 14, 3, p. 359-366. 8 p.
Journal article

Success and survival of operational research groups - a review
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, 4, p. 336-360. 25 p.
Journal article

One day ahead demand forecasting in the utility industries: two case studies
Randall, A., Stubbs, P., Fildes, R.A. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, p. 15-24. 10 p.
Journal article

Death of an OR group: a case study
Crymble, W.R., Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, 4, p. 361-372. 12 p.
Journal article

Daily demand forecasting in the utility industries
Randall, A., Stubbs, P., Fildes, R.A. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, p. 15-24. 10 p.
Journal article